THE EFFECT OF HARBOR DEVELOPMENTS ON HIGH-TIDE FLOODING IN MIAMI (FL)

We develop and validate a tidal-inference based methodology that leverages estimates of historical tidal ranges to obtain predictions constituents. Next, the method is applied case study in Miami (Florida), where mean range has more than doubled since 1900, from 0.32 m 0.66 today. Water level represent modern water variations are projected forward time using different sea rise (SLR) scenarios, see how increase affects occurrence present-day future high-tide flooding. To this end, we apply Li et al., (2021), which implies remove oscillations levels replace them with constant prediction, obtained constituents representing historic conditions. This creates synthetic series approximates what would have been, had tides not evolved. Possible estimated for each SLR scenario (a) “tide-only” scenario, oscillation on top accounting average seasonal cycle (MSL); (b) “total level” approach includes SLR, non-tidal fluctuations level. While first neglects relevant forcing (e.g., inter-annual decadal MSL variability, river discharge, storm surge), it enables us isolate contribution HTF provides useful metrics quantifying effects coastal